Fantasy spotlight: Bears WR Brandon Marshall

Returning to work with Jay Cutler was a blessing for Brandon Marshall in 2012. He was the only wide receiver last year to finish top-4 in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. CBS currently has Marshall ranked as the No. 4 wide-out, projecting his draft value in the beginning of the third round. I'm going to tell you why he's more valuable than this.

Brandon Marshall was targeted an obnoxious 194 times last year, same as Reggie Wayne. Only Calvin Johnson was targeted more through 16 games. So why's this article not arguing for Wayne as a high-end WR? Well, Matt Stafford set a league record with 727 pass attempts last year, so proportionally, Johnson's 205 targets really wasn't extraordinary. Andrew Luck threw the ball more than any other rookie; 627 times, so Wayne matching Marshall's 194 looks isn't incredibly impressive. Jay Cutler, on the other hand, only attempted 434 passes; this means that Marshall was targeted an obnoxious 40% of Bears' passing plays in 2012. This is a staggering statistic, blowing away the rest of the league by almost ten points. (A.J. Green: 30%, Dez Bryant: 21%, Julio Jones: 21%, Demaryius Thomas: 24%, Larry Fitzgerald: 25%.)

Strength of schedule is as important to the success of a fantasy pick as any other statistic. In 2013, the Bears' have the 4th easiest schedule for WRs (weeks 1-16). For playoff weeks (15-16), Chicago is also 4th in the league. No team has a more lucrative schedule for wide receivers in both the playoffs and regular season.

The last stat we'll look at is redzone targets per game. Only A.J. Green and Percy Harvin were targeted more times per game played in the redzone. Brandon Marshall's 1.4 was tied with Marques Colston for third in this category.

Obviously it's important to look at the moves that a team has made during the off-season when grading a fantasy player. Here's a look at the Bears' major moves to date:

  • Hiring head coach Marc Trestman: An offensive mind with a long history of increasing pass-game production. An obvious plus for Brandon Marshall.
  • Signing Martellus Bennett: This might be a mark in the red for Marshall, only time will tell. While Bennett will prove more productive than the Bears' tight ends last season, he could also draw some pressure off of Marshall; who commented earlier this month that the easiest coverage he saw in 2012 was double-coverage.
  • Signing Jermon Bushrod: A monster at left tackle. Jay Cutler might finally feel his blind side is safe. This is going to benefit every aspect of the passing game.
  • First round draft pick Kyle Long: Just more protection for Cutler. Also serving as help to the pass-game.

Brandon Marshall is a big-time (dare I say) No. 2 overall WR this year for fantasy teams. There will be little to no contention that Calvin Johnson is the best in the league. It's looking for the second best that will start to trip up owners. If you're playing in a points-per-reception league, than Marshall is absolutely your guy. He's poised for another 100 reception year to go along with 1,200 yards and 12 scores. If you're playing in a standard scoring league, this becomes a more difficult decision. I have to give the slight edge to the younger A.J. Green. Marshall an easy nod at No. 3. Keeper leagues might also lean towards A.J., as Marshall will be 30 years old entering the 2014 season. While CBS argues Marshall as the No. 22 overall pick, I would give him a serious look if I have a pick in the second half of the second round.

@NFLMind

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