2013 AFC East season preview

The American Football Conference Eastern Division is one of the oldest.  Created in 1960 as the AFL East Division as a counterpart to the AFL Western Division, its modern day residents include four teams, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills.

The AFC East will be the most fascinating division to watch this year in the NFL.  Due to their tumultuous offseason of multiple players signing elsewhere and one player indicted for murder, every remote control couch coach in their cup-holding recliners and upper echelon T.V. pigskin pundits West of the Berkshires and South of Providence believe the Patriots have lost their mojo.  The Jets, Bills and Dolphins think they smell blood in the water and are ready to unseat the Pats atop of the AFC East. 

Not so fast my little referee.  No other team in the NFL deals with negativity and adversity like the Patriots and no other team in the NFL will use that negativity and adversity to their advantage.  Brady’s bunch will once again have the rest of the division in the Patriots’ rearview mirror as they make their drive to the Super Bowl.  Here is my 2013 AFC East season preview.   

New England Patriots (16-0) [Division Champion]

Last Season: 12-4

2013 schedule and projected result

 Bills   Win

New York Jets Win

Tampa Bay   Win

At Atlanta Win

At Cincinnati Win

New Orleans Win

At New York Jets  Win

Miami Win

Pittsburgh Win

At CarolinaWin

Denver  Win

At Houston Win

Cleveland Win

At Miami Win

At Baltimore Win

Buffalo Win



Patriots will go 16-0 in 2013.  There, I said it.  It is easy to say that the Patriots will win this division but you may be thinking I am nuts for picking them to go undefeated.  They already did it once and know what it takes to do it again.

The Patriots still have two cornerstones of their continued success in future Hall of Fame coach and quarterback in Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.  This coach-quarterback partnership is one of the most successful in NFL history.  More on the lords of the rings later.

The Patriots did lose key players this offseason but they filled those holes with very capable replacements.  Football magnet Wes Welker signed with the Broncos and though they will miss his production and durability, the question is how much?  The Pats filled his role rather quickly with signing Danny Amendola from the Rams.  Danny Woodhead took his game to the Chargers but the Patriots have a faster, improved pass-catching version of Woodhead in Shane Vereen.

The offensive line got an added boost with signing Will Svitek.  However, this is still Logan Mankins’ crew and they will be as nasty and tough as ever.  This line will not back down from any defense and with line coach, Donte Scarneckya, being the best in the business still running the show; this should be a good year for boys who protect Brady.

The Pats will still employ their “bend but don’t break” defense.  However, they will be much more improved than last season.  The re-signing of Aqib Talib and the signing of Adrian Wilson are steps to repair the 29th ranked pass defense in the league.  Vince Wilfork still anchors the front and look for solid years from Brandon Spikes, Jarod Mayo, Chandler Jones and newcomer Tommy Kelly.  Rookie Jamie Collins will have a solid year playing multiple linebacker spots.

The Pats running game was very good last year with the emergence of Stevan Ridley.  The Patriots finished seventh in the NFL in rushing and scored more rushing touchdowns than any other team.  The Pats running back squad is fuller than a Maine lobster trap with LeGarrette Blount, Brandon Bolden, Vereen and Leon Washington.  Look for Blount, Vereen and Washington to make the 53-man roster with Bolden ask to go to the practice squad.  The Pats are stacked at running back and anyone of these ball carriers will succeed in their roles.

Now let me get back to Brady and Belichick.  B&B are masters at doing more with less.  They are both going to the Hall of Fame and they can both be considered the greatest at their respective NFL jobs.  B&B will both have to be the best teachers on the schoolyard this year as the Patriots’ offense will see new, fresh faces in Kenbrell Thompkins, Zach Sudfeld, Josh Boyce and to some extent Amendola.  The loss of Rob Gronkowski for part of the year hurts but this offense will go as far as Brady can take them.  Brady’s greatest asset (and he has several) is that he makes the team around him better.  His career is on the back nine but his fire and passion for winning is still on the first tee.

I picked the Patriots to go undefeated with the only potential roadblock being the Atlanta Falcons.  If the Pats can get passed the feisty southern birds and Matt Ryan and take their undefeated winning ways into the playoffs, look for Bill Belichick to be spending the money to change the name of his boat.

Miami Dolphins (9-7)

Last Season: 7-9

2013 schedule and projected result

At Cleveland Win

At Indianapolis Win

Atlanta Loss

At New Orleans Loss

Baltimore Loss

Buffalo Win

At New England Loss

Cincinnati Loss

At Tampa Bay Win

San Diego Win

Carolina Win

At New York Jets Win

At Pittsburgh Loss

New England Loss

At Buffalo Win

New York Jets Win

Key Additions: Mike Wallace, Dannell Ellerbe, Philip Wheeler, Dustin Keller (Lost to season ending injury) and Dion Jordan

Key Losses: Jake Long, Reggie Bush, Davone Bess and Anthony Fasano

The Fins improved this year flip-flopping their win loss total.  Last year they were 7-9 and this year they will end up 9-7.  Improved, but still on the beach catching South Florida sun while the other teams will be in the playoff waters.

Second year quarterback, Ryan Tannehill, is improving and the additions of a deep threat in Mike Wallace and a slot specialist in Brandon Gibson will help one of the worst offenses in 2012.  The re-signing of Brian Hartline was a good move and the signing of tight end Dustin Keller was a better move.  However, Keller was lost for the season after suffering a devastating knee injury during a preseason game.  The loss of Keller will hurt the production of the offense, as defenses will now be able to direct more focus on Wallace.

The Dolphins also let two key offensive players sail out of South Florida with the departures of tackle Jack Long and running back Reggie Bush.  Both are big losses that will cost Miami at least one win this season.

The defense was strong last year with a seventh ranked rushing defense and pass rusher Cameron Wake will cause strong waves for opposing quarterbacks.  Rookie, Dion Jordon, is the future big fish in Miami’s defensive pond and could be a strong contributor this year if he can overcome his issues with his surgically repaired shoulder.

Linebackers Dannell Ellerbe (from Ravens) and Phillip Wheeler (from Raiders) will add depth, experience and possibly a few sacks in defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle’s blitz packages.

The Dolphins swim two feet forward then are slammed backed a foot by the waves.  The two more wins I give them from last year is an indication they are flowing in the right direction but not fast enough to join the 2013 playoff dance party.

Buffalo Bills (6-10)

Last Season: 6-10

2013 schedule and projected result

New England Loss

Carolina Win

At New York Jets Win

Baltimore Loss

At Cleveland Loss

Cincinnati Loss

At Miami Loss

At New Orleans Win

Kansas City Win

At Pittsburgh Loss

New York Jets Win

Atlanta Loss

At Tampa Bay Loss

At Jacksonville Win

Miami Loss

At New England Loss

Key Additions: EJ Manuel and Kevin Kolb

Key Losses: Andy Levitre, Ryan Fitzpatrick and George Wilson

For the Buffalo Bills, running back C.J. Spiller is the one bright star on the offense.  If Spiller can stay healthy, he has a legitimate chance to reach the coveted 2,000 yards rushing mark in a single season.  Spiller alone is good for at least three wins this season and could be an offensive player of the year candidate.  Newcomer, Robert Woods, who was drafted in the second round of the 2013 NFL draft, will provide immediate help at the wide receiver position.

The Bills let starting quarterback, Ryan Patrick, shuffle on off to Tennessee while taking a $10 million dollar cap hit.  To replace the fiery Irishman, the Bills brought in oft-injured Kevin Kolb and first round draft choice E.J. Manuel.

Manuel is the Bills future but knee issue that could keep him out of some regular season games has recently slowed him.  Kolb also had injury issues this preseason, most recently a potential concussion.  This position is in obvious flux and that is not a good thing for any team.  Look for the Bills to bring in some veteran help before the regular season begins.

There are playmakers on defense with Jairus Byrd and Mario Williams but the Bills will struggle to reach six wins this season.  If Spiller goes down and they do not fix their QB situation, the Bills will be hard pressed to look like a team improving.

The uncertainty at QB cost the Bills some wins this season.  However, the Bills will improve. It just will not be this season.  They will miss the playoff dance but look for them to be on the guest list in the near future.

New York Jets (0-16)

Last Season: 6-10

2013 schedule and projected result

Tampa Bay Loss

At New England  Loss

Buffalo Loss

At Tennessee Loss

At Atlanta Loss

Pittsburgh Loss

New England Loss

At Cincinnati Loss

New Orleans Loss

At Buffalo Loss

At Baltimore Loss

Miami Loss

Oakland Loss

At Carolina Loss

Cleveland Loss

At Miami Loss

Key Additions: Geno Smith, Dee Milliner and Chris Ivory

Key Losses: Darrelle Revis, LaRon Landry and Bart Scott

This will be my shortest analysis of any season prediction I make this year.  The Jets did draft quarterback Geno Smith and though talented, he is paired with one of the worst head coaches in recent memory, Rex Ryan.  Ryan lost control of this team a few seasons ago and this no win season is the result.  This will be Rex Ryan's last year as the Jets head coach and he may never get another head-coaching job again in the NFL. 

Mark Sanchez has never taken that next step to becoming a better QB and I blame that on Ryan.  Secondary maniac, Darrelle Revis, is gone, leaving rookie Dee Milliner to fend off the likes of Tom Brady, Andy Dalton, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan  Unproven running back, Chris Ivory, attempts to tote the rock while wide receiver Santonio Holmes will play when he wants.

The Jets are at the bottom of the AFC East and the reason is that Rex Ryan is leading this team.  The Jets can only improve in the coming seasons and that will only happen when they finally get a new head coach.  I gave the Jets zero wins this season and it is just as hard to lose all 16 as it is to win all 16 but something tells me Rex’s boys will have no issue sporting the goose egg.

So there you have it, my 2013 AFC East season preview.  It comes full circle with the Patriots going 16-0 and the Jets going 0-16 with the Bills and Dolphins in the middle of the pack but improving.  Like it or hate it, let me know.

You can follow me on twitter @TheSoftParade69
Talk football talk cigars talk anything, I know a little about a lot.



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